Background
Lifespans are increasing and the proportion of elderly persons undergoing surgery is increasing\[1\]. As clinicians we need to accurately communicate the risks of major surgery to our patients. Traditional risk prediction tools such as Physiologic and operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) estimate short-term outcomes\[2\]. Patients have the right to know the likely outcomes beyond the 30-day perioperative period, including life expectancy, long-term complications, level of independence and quality of life\[3\].
Based on a systematic review of the literature we have previously reported on the paucity of studies evaluating longer-term outcomes in persons of advanced age undergoing major surgery\[4\].
Our group has previously reported, from analysis performed on an English administrative dataset, that patients face comparatively high mortality of 29% at one year following colorectal surgery when performed as an emergency\[5\]. Furthermore, we have published findings, again from national datasets, that patients 75-80 years of age undergoing colorectal resection in the elective setting also face substantial mortality of 16% at one-year, and over a third of patients aged \>89 years who underwent surgery did not survive one-year\[6\].
Frailty, a distinct entity from co-morbidity, is recognized as an independent contributor to mortality in elderly surgical patients\[7-10\]. Thus we need to improve preoperative risk stratification for geriatric patients. Such systems may include frailty assessment and relevant predictive biomarkers. Thus we can then target additional healthcare resources towards the most frail and vulnerable elderly patients to mitigate against the risks of postoperative complications and death\[11\].
Preoperative optimisation strategies \[12-14\], careful intraoperative monitoring and postoperative care within the high dependency setting may reduce the frequency of postoperative complications, accelerate recovery and improve short-term outcomes. Furthermore, we need a collaborative research with elderly care and community physicians to determine whether ongoing postoperative community rehabilitation can offset the late risk of death associated with major surgery and further improve long-term survival.
Rationale for Current Study: Research Question
What preoperative parameters can be used to predict patient centered outcomes (survival, complications, functional independence, quality of life) in older persons undergoing major gastrointestinal elective surgery in the intermediate term?
Hypotheses
Traditional POSSUM scoring systems will not reliably predict outcomes at 1 year in elderly persons.
Patients determined to be frail preoperatively will have worse outcomes at 1 year, in terms of survival, postoperative complications, level of independence and quality of life.
Study Objectives
To identify the preoperative parameters that will predict 1 year outcomes in patients aged ≥60 years undergoing major gastrointestinal elective surgery.
Parameters include comprehensive geriatric assessment (i.e. a preoperative questionnaire of validated instruments assessing the dimensions of co-morbidities, activities of daily living, nutrition, cognitive function, emotional status, fatigue and performance status).
Furthermore patients will be asked to undergo a series of simple physical exercises (hand grip strength, timing up and go, 15 feet timing walking test, and 6 minute walking test).
Preoperative serum results will also be incorporated. Additional blood and urine samples will be obtained preoperative for later metabolic profiling.
Questionnaire, physical tests and biological sampling with be assessed at the time of the preoperative assessment process, or at another time preoperatively at the patients convenience.
Serum samples will be only obtained preoperatively. Urine samples may be collected following surgery.
