The Regression of Liver Fibrosis and Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (ROLFH) Study

Cirrhosis is the final pathway of chronic liver disease, and up to 30% of patients develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within 5 years of diagnosis of cirrhosis. Worldwide, chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and B (CHB) account for the majority of cases of cirrhosis. Successful antiviral treatment results in regression of fibrosis in the majority of patients. Surveillance programs for early detection of HCC mandate the use of imaging (ultrasound/CT-scan) every 6 months. It has been shown in CHC and CHB that the risk of HCC is greatly reduced after viral disease is eradicated/inactive. However, the impact that regression of fibrosis and other factors could have in abating the incidence of HCC has not been systematically investigated. Currently, all patients with eradicated/inactive viral disease continue to be enrolled in HCC surveillance programs, generating anxiety in patients and very high costs to our healthcare system. Fibrotest (FT) and transient elastography (TE) are noninvasive tools proven to be useful for serial assessment of liver fibrosis. OBJECTIVES: The proposed hypothesis is that patients with regression of liver fibrosis have decreased risk for HCC. Primary aim is to determine the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis secondary to CHC and CHB, during the 3-7 years after treatment is provided, and to identify the magnitude of the decreased risk for HCC in patients experiencing regression of fibrosis. As a secondary aim, environmental risk factors for HCC development will be sought, in order to determine a subset of patients in whom it will be safe to stop surveillance. METHODS: Patients 18-70 year-old with cirrhosis will be identified from hepatology clinics in 4 academic centers in North America. FT/TE will be obtained before the start of antivirals and yearly thereafter (prospective arm). A retrolective arm of all patients treated no earlier than Jan/2009 will also be included. In this group, baseline FT/TE will be performed off treatment (CHC) or after initial phase of therapy (CHB), and yearly thereafter. During baseline and yearly visits other factors possibly affecting HCC development will be investigated (family history, comorbidities, BMI, diet, etc.). Patients will be classified as having or having not undergone regression of fibrosis after a 3-year follow up, depending on FT and TE evolution. During follow up, all patients will undergo 6-month imaging as part of their routine HCC surveillance. Based on power calculations, enrollment should stop after 924 patients have been recruited. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models will be used to analyze data. PATIENT OUTCOMES: ROLFH study uses state-of-the-art noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis to test whether reversed fibrosis decreases the risk of HCC. We believe this study will lead to a better understanding of HCC risk factors, improved patient counseling and decision making, optimized screening and allocation of health resources, and decreased healthcare costs.