Stay In Treatment for Pediatric Weight Management

The obesity epidemic is one of the foremost threats to the health of children and adults in the U.S today. Multidisciplinary pediatric weight management programs have been deemed effective, with increased access to these programs strongly advocated. However, the effectiveness of these programs is limited by attrition, with dropout ranging from 27-73%, limiting health benefits to children and inefficiently utilizing already scarce resources. In addition to better understanding the drivers of attrition, being able to predict or forecast dropout holds great potential to improve adherence and outcomes, and modify treatment approaches to best serve the needs of families. Using a model that isolates variables associated with attrition from pediatric weight management to forecast participant dropout, this prospective, longitudinal observational study will collect comprehensive data on child and family-, obesity-, and treatment-related variables In Stage 1, investigators will install an attrition forecasting model, the Outcomes Forecasting System (OFS), in 3 pediatric weight management programs, and build its precision and calibration using a conceptual model of adherence. In Stage 2, we will establish external validation, installing the OFS in a fourth weight management program, and temporal validation through continued use of the OFS within the 3 original sites. The overall goal of this project is to increase the accuracy and power of an attrition prediction model through its installation in weight management programs and to demonstrate its internal, external, and temporal validity. A greater understanding of patient, family, and disease-specific factors that predict dropout from pediatric weight management can be utilized to prevent attrition. By identifying the most pertinent factors driving attrition across weight management sites, new avenues for treatment and prevention will be identified. This project will result in a valuable tool, available for dissemination across a diverse array of clinical programs to improve adherence, decrease costs, and improve outcomes.